Who am I? And why should you not trust me?

Right now, I am a wanna-be tipster — someone who tells you which football bets to make. What I am really selling is a number: for a given match, how likely each result actually is.

Betting is a game about who knows more. A bookmaker sets prices from its own estimate of how likely each result is. If my estimate is better than theirs, there is money in the gap between the two. That gap is the whole business.

But you should not trust me. Every tipster on the internet claims an edge, and the ones who are lying claim it just as loudly. I have every incentive to show you my good weeks and quietly bury the bad ones — and you have no way of telling the difference. That is an unfair arrangement, and it is the thing I want to get rid of.

What instead?

My claim is that I have — not quite yet, as you can check for yourself — a model that estimates football probabilities more accurately than the bookmaker prices them. If that claim is true, then a result proved by John Kelly in 1956 says my bankroll should grow. Not every bet, and not every week — but over the long run.

That claim is worth nothing on its own. What makes it different here is that I have set things up so that I can be caught if I lie about it. Here is how that works.

I have to say what I did before I know how it went

Every morning at 10:30 AM CET, before the first match of the day kicks off, I publish two things to a public folder on the internet — aleatoric-verify — and announce them on my public Telegram channel:

1. A list of what I have bet on today. Which matches, and which kind of bet on each — but not the picks themselves. Those go to my private channel.
2. A fingerprint of the picks. My picks, my probabilities and my stakes go into one file. That file is run through a standard piece of maths (SHA-256) that turns any file into one short string of characters. Change a single comma in the file and that string comes out completely different. I publish the string, not the file — and I sign it with a private key, a secret only I hold, so that nobody else can publish a fingerprint in my name.

The next day, I publish the file itself.

Anyone can then run the same maths on the file I revealed and check that it produces the same fingerprint I published in the morning, before a ball was kicked. Think of it as a sealed envelope: you watch me seal it in the morning, I open it the next day, and you can tell it is the same envelope. If I quietly improve my picks once the results are in, the two fingerprints stop matching — and you know I lied.

And I cannot quietly rewrite the past either

Sealing one envelope a day only protects that day. On its own, it would not stop me from deleting a bad week, or slipping in a winning day that never happened. A record nobody wrote down can always be edited into something more flattering.

So each day is tied to the one before it: every entry contains the fingerprint of the previous entry. That turns the history into a chain, where the final link — one string of characters I call the head — depends on every single day that came before it. That head is pinned in my Telegram channel bio.

Change, add or remove any past day — one character is enough — and every link after it changes too, so the head no longer matches the one I pinned. You do not have to audit hundreds of days. You have to compare one string of characters.

Three ways to check me

• One tap, nothing to install Open the verification page. It does all of the checking for you, live, in your browser — your phone is fine. Green means every bet was sealed before the matches started, and nothing has been changed since.
• Ask a machine you already trust Give your favourite AI chatbot the link to the public folder and ask it whether the code really does what I say it does. It can read the checking program, the signatures and the data, and answer you in plain language. You do not need to know how to read code, and you do not have to take my description of the maths on faith.
• Do it yourself If you do write code: download the repository and run verify.py. It recomputes every fingerprint, checks every signature against my public key, and rebuilds the chain head from scratch.

Notice that none of these asks you to trust me. They ask you to check me. The only thing you have to take on faith is my public key — a short public string of characters that proves a signature is mine. It sits in the public folder and it is pinned in my channel, so you can compare the two and see that they agree.

And the writing?

The rest of this site is the working-out: where the numbers come from, which parts of the theory I have actually understood versus merely recited, and the arguments that took more than one sitting. It gets mathematical, but it always starts from the beginning. Start with The Mathematics of Money if you want the foundations, or just read everything newest first.