Football, probability and information theory. Working out — in public, and in the open — whether a model can beat the bookmaker, and proving it cannot lie about it.https://aleatoricfc.com/https://aleatoricfc.com/blog/the-mathematics-of-money/https://aleatoricfc.com/blog/the-mathematics-of-money/A fishing trip, an adoptive grandpa, and the reason a bankroll grows: Kelly's 1956 paper read as Shannon's communication model, all the way to G = H(X) − H(X|Y).Tue, 14 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT